Deep(er) Learning from Blackjack Machine Emulations

I have been testing the "winning" Blackjack technique documented in a recent post, that is:

A Simple Winning Technique for Automatic Blackjack Machine Play

Below is presented a workable, wining Modified Martingale Doubling (MMD) strategy and technique.

Note that it is much easier to turn a profit on BJ machines paying traditional 3 to 2 for a user Blackjack. However, contrary to what I originally believed (and wrote in blog entries before this correction) it is actually possible to make small, steady gains on machines only paying 6 to 5 on player Blackjack.

It is easy to for casinos to change firmware programming, altering the payoff schedule of an existing machine. Worse yet, many machines do not actually say their actual Blackjack payoff under the "help" option, or on the attraction display. IMHO that ought to be illegal, but of course technological change often outpaces the realities of regulative law.

There are other things to be learned that render some of the prior discussion (in the prior post cited above) to be mistaken! I have not corrected the narrative for various reasons, mostly because I have not invested losing money, traveling far and wide to discover all the details and variations of blackjack machines now commonly in play that may well have been altered on the fly in situ, to pay 6 to 5 for blackjack. Just know that if you get odd amounts of 60 cents, or 40 cents or such on your total credit amount after a blackjack, that machine is paying 6 to 5 and is difficult to beat. NOTA BENE: It is also the case that Blackjack machines can be "gaffed" so that the are not playing with honest decks of cards with the correct proportion of card values in play. For example, if one adds more than the usual four 5-pip value cards to a deck, then that deck will disproportionately favor the house. Because the virtual cards in a BJ machine are re-shuffled with each play, it can be difficult to detect such a "gaffed deck".

WINNING TECHNIQUE: this is a "known good" technique:

Beating Blackjack Machines - Summarized Technique

1. Use Basic Strategy as you play out hands with the machine.

   1. Details of Basic Strategy which governs hit/stand/double down/pair split actions can be found elsewhere in this blog, as well as being widely published online and in books.

2. Start at $3 minimum bet level, with a total playing stake of $800

3. If you lose the (starting) $3 bet, double your bet.

   1. If you win, start again at step 1.

4. If you lose the doubled ($6) bet, continue to double your prior bet level.

   1. $6, $12, $24, $48, and $96 are your progressive bet levels if you continue to lose.

   2. When you win, start again at step 1.

5. Continue the process (known here as MMD-- Modified Martingale Doubling), repeating steps 1 through 4 until you reach a "goal win" total of $40 or more.

   1. When you have attained "goal win" (or better) of winnings, then quit and d.s.e. (do something else) for at least 15 minutes.

   2. After 15 minutes of doing something else, you can feel free to start again and repeat steps 1 through 4, to another goal win of $40 or more.

6. If (not likely, but entirely possible with an honest digital card deck on an honest BJ machine) you lose 6 times in a row, and lose that MMD bet of $96, then

   1. Quit and d.s.e. for at least 15 minutes.

   2. Feel free to start over at step 1 after doing something else for 15 minutes.

   3. Notice that your total loss (in the rare event of six losses in a row playing Basic Strategy) would be $189, less than one quarter of your original gambling stake of $800.

7. Accordingly, you would have to have an extremely unlikely run of several "lose-6-in-row" events before exhausting your total gambling stake of $800. If you experience another (second instance) run of 6 losses in a row, it could well be that you are playing a gaffed machine, and you should seek a different casino, before continuing.

If you wish to increase your challenge in playing with some chance at quicker or more substantial profits, there are some additional things that you can try:

+ Count 5/V-5s in each hand. If you see 3 or more 5/V-5s in a hand, increase

your next bet by $5 (in addition to the prescribed MMD bet level.

o A V-5 is a "virtual 5 card", which is any triplet of 3 low cards (2-6

value) seen in a single hand, including cards in your hand, and in the

dealer's hand.

+ Start your minimum bet level at $6, rather than $3. Continue to employ MMD

from the higher $6 starting bet. Continue to bet only a maximum of $96, and

start over at $6 bet level when you win at any MMD level or after losing

maximum $96 bet.

+ Use a larger goal win level before you stop and d.s.e. I have used a goal win

level of $50 rather than $40 with no discernible difference in results, other

than a higher profit rate. Note that "diminishing return results" would be

expected if you continued to increased goal win level without increasing your

total gambling stake of $800.

+ ALSO NOTE: in the long run, you will experience instances wherein you get

"stopped out" at $96 "max loss", followed immediately by yet another $96 max

loss; and rarely but in the long term followed yet again by another "stop out"

loss of $96 and so on, with each additional link in the "loss chain" having

decreased likelihood, but still possessed of some real chance of happening. In

such instances, take heart. It is still possible to "climb out" of such a hole

by persisting in the above "win a chunk, d.s.e., and repeat" technique.

+ Devise and use an MMD tracker card-- simply an index card with the MMD

betting levels listed vertically, and a paper clip "pointer" clipped on the

card. Whenever you advanced bet money for the current MMD bet level to the

betting circle, move the paper clip down to the next modified martingale

doubled bet level, keeping track of where you are in MMD levels. Perhaps you

will not find this necessary, but you are after all, also probably needing

a cheat card for playing Basic Strategy. It is easy to lose track of MMD levels

while managing your Basic Strategy.

-------------------- [Prior discussion, with erroneous starting bet levels and more] -------------------

Modified Martingale Doubling (known here as MMD) does indeed allow one to create a pattern of steady "small goal wins". HOWEVER, at unpredictable intervals MMD produces a spectacular large loss that more than makes up for all the small gains-- Note this happens If and only if you allow MM Doubling up to the total gambling stake you brought to the casino. This is natural, and to be expected-- the house edge is still in play. In one example during experimental play, I experienced 10 losses in a row, with doubling! A huge net loss resulted, obtainable only by the trainer/simulator allowing (and myself using) an ability to "borrow" more total gambling stake.

SO. There are a couple of things ways to respond and potentially "fix" this: The first is to use "count-the 5's and V-5's". Of course, that technique (also) would be overwhelmed by experiences like 10 losses in a row. AND a moment's consideration allows estimation of the odds of 10 losses in a row to be only about 1 in 1000. That is: the odds against 10 losses in a row are lower than one might naively expect!

Another technique is to keep track of "losses in a row" and stop playing altogether before the next single bet gets to be so high (that is, 2**10 or 1024 times the minimum bet).  SO, I experimented with MMD loss doubling capped at 64 for $4 starting min bet, and then (only for a short trial) of MMD loss doubling capped at $128 for $8 minimum bet level.

I have just tried that, with only one trial hitting as many as 6 losses in a row. I was able to turn "6-losses-in-a-row" into yet another routine-level win of $63. This was a victory. However, this appears to be a singleton (i.e. lucky) victory. In other trials, capping the MMD doubling level at six losses in a row, and losing at the last/highest loss level happened repeatedly, enough so that I was "stuck" with an accumulated loss that was not easily made up in subsequent sessions after D.S.E (doing something else) to create new sessions as -independent trials.

ANOTHER ISSUE is that when playing Basic Strategy and attempting to count 5's/V-5's, I found it difficult to both count 5's and to keep track of where I was in the MMD progression.

Skipping a level without a loss for that level, (because I was distracted by 5/V5's count), and/or repeating a level both would tend to cause accumulating losses. I devised a "doubling tracker"-- simply an index card with the MMD betting levels listed vertically, with a paper clip "pointer" clipped on the card. Whenever I advanced bet money for the current MMD bet level to the betting circle, I would move the paper clip down to the next modified martingale doubled bet level, keeping track of where I was while I was busy executing Basic Strategy hit/stand/doubling/pair splitting moves and evaluating whether 5/V5's count justified "bonus amount betting".

• The "doubling tracker" can also be consulted to keep "losses in a row" in a serviceable way. Let's try to codify that supposition into rules and then try the rules by extensive emulator play:

• If starting at $4 min bet, we find ourselves faced with MM doubling to $128 level (i.e. 5 losses in a row) THEN

  • Instead of betting $128 (compounding the loss), return to $4 minimum bet level. Use MMD plus basic plus "count the 5/V-5's" to recover your loss.

  • If that does not work (another set of losses such that we do not recover the prior loss) THEN quit and do something else (d. s. e.) for a while.

  • If that does work, (i.e. you recover the loss and regain your original playing stake after doing something else) then resume MMD until you have a "normal" moderate profit $45-$65. With about 85% odds, you would succeed it that last part, I believe.

• If starting at $8 minimum, then avoiding 5 losses in a row puts you at $128 for your largest bet. That is, avoid MM doubling into a $256 bet level.

  • Use a recovery strategy exactly as practiced for $4 min bet starting level, except you venture one level higher maximum bet before returning to $8 min level-- And of course you sustain higher losses with the same level of bad luck risk; with corresponding greater gains as one recovers and wins.

Okay. I am going to play the above model for a while, and report results with additional text below (in due time) ...

AND WHAT I FOUND: The house edge will out. I experienced MMD multiple loss runs repeatedly enough to overwhelm the more common, smaller win levels that MMD doubling yielded.

HOWEVER, there might be still a way to use MMD betting with 5/V-5's counting to yield Blackjack Machine wins. If one starts the doubling level at the absolute minimum bet level allowed of $2 and used a total stake able to absorb at least 4 "MMD disaster losses" (of 6 losses in a row), the gain level could be smaller, but positive more often than not.

ALSO, if one "takes profits earlier" (by accepting a lower goal-win gain per session) then because of fewer hands in play for a lower, "common session gain", the chance for the more rare (higher odds against) MMD disaster is reduced. Perhaps such parameter changes in the model might find a "sweet spot" wherein common session small gains yield more than the occasional (rare?) MMD disaster loss. ALSO in the mix: increment the 5/V5 counts betting to select only more favorable situations for "bonus betting"-- i.e. only bet a bonus when 3 or more 5/V5's are seen in a single hand, and then only bet $10 bonus amounts (in addition to the MMD-controlled current bet level).

SO, I am going to play some more emulation trials, seeing if I might find such a "sweet spot" using a starting $2-level MMD (w/ count 5/V-5's) vs a stake of $800, AND (perhaps) $3-start-level MMD plus count 5/V-5's. Note that 5-loss MMD disaster loses only $126 cumulative with $2-level start doubling. Equivalent $3-level minimum start-bet with MMD loses $189 after five losses in a row.

LESSONS LEARNED from above live play: Don't use high starting minimum levels of betting such as $8. The MM Doubling plus house edge will quickly overwhelm and consume your accumulated relatively small goal-wins.

I was most successful using $2 minimum starting bet, along with taking a chance (real gambling) by occasionally betting $4 after a win, and doubling from that higher level, rather than strictly re-starting at the $2 level. This resulted in faster accumulations of small-goal-wins + d. s. e. without ever betting more than $128 driven by MM Doubling, which would (in the case of a rare loss) would wipe out several "small-goal-win" gains of ~ $40.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE WELL: Just as blackjack machines with 3:2 blackjack payout are becoming more rare, so also are machines that allow $2 minimum starting bet. It is entirely possible and workable to use MMD with a $3 minimum starting bet. HOWEVER, I adjure you NOT to try any starting bet level more than that, unless you are willing to bring $3,000 or more to the casino as a total gambling stake, and are prepared to lose the entire stake, perhaps more than once, as you are learning to apply MMD winning technique. Essentially always, the maximum allowed bet is set so that you cannot double enough times, using MMD to make up for preceding losses, and net a small win. As mentioned, the $8 level that I used as an example above is actually untenable, and will lead to large losses. Thankfully, Blackjack machines still commonly allow $3 minimum bet with $400-$500 maximum bets, which is workable with MM doubling, (and counting 5/V5's) for a small, steady winning strategy. Avoid the temptation to double $96 to a $192 bet level. If you lose 6 in a row, including the $96 bet level, just go back to $3, and build up to a $40+ win level, then d.s.e and do that multiple times, to win back to a net gain.

It is possible to win back from a "deep hole" caused by losing a few "large" bets, one after the other. HOWEVER, it is tedious in the extreme to climb out of such a hole. You might well run out of stamina and stomach for the play before you win back. Whereas, if you quit before the hole becomes "too deep", winning back is just two or three more steps of "build to $40 gain + quit 'n' d.s.e".